9
Sep

2024 Industrial Real Estate Market Trends Report

Blaine Annett
I
September 9, 2024

Industrial real estate investors face a shifting market in 2024. Rising vacancy rates and slower rent growth have changed the landscape. Property owners need clear insights to make smart choices in this new environment.

A key fact stands out: the national vacancy rate has climbed to 6.4%, up 30 basis points from last month. This report will break down the latest trends and data to help you navigate the commercial real estate market.

We'll give you the tools to spot opportunities and avoid pitfalls. Ready for expert analysis on 2024's industrial real estate market trends?

Key Takeaways

  • National vacancy rates rose to 6.4%, up 30 basis points from last month, showing a cooling market.
  • Southern California markets saw drops in new lease costs, with Inland Empire decreasing by $3.37 per square foot.
  • E-commerce growth continues to drive demand for warehouses, with Amazon restarting leases in 2024.
  • Western markets lead in sales prices, with the Bay Area topping at $518 per square foot.
  • Interest rates have slowed new construction, with completions expected to hit a 10-year low by late 2025.

Key Market Dynamics and Trends

The industrial real estate market faces major shifts in 2024. E-commerce growth and supply chain changes drive new trends in demand and supply.

Shifts in Demand and Supply

Industrial real estate markets are shifting in 2024. Demand has cooled while new supply has increased. This has led to higher vacancy rates and slower rent growth across many U.S. markets.

Southern California markets show clear signs of this trend. In Los Angeles, new lease costs dropped by $1.98 per square foot. The Inland Empire saw an even larger decrease of $3.37.

Orange County also experienced a decline of $0.46 per square foot. These drops come despite rising in-place rents, pointing to a market adjustment.

Market fundamentals have softened due to historic levels of new supply delivered in recent years.

Boston stands out among major industrial markets. It had the highest vacancy rate but saw improvement. The rate fell by 30 basis points to 8.5%. This suggests some markets may be finding balance faster than others.

Investors should watch regional differences closely as the market evolves.

Influence of E-commerce on Market Trends

E-commerce growth continues to shape industrial real estate trends in 2024. Online shopping demands have led to a surge in warehouse and distribution center needs. This shift impacts both urban and rural areas, as companies seek strategic locations for fast delivery.

Amazon's recent moves highlight the e-commerce influence on the market. The company paused some projects in 2023, slowing warehouse job growth. But reports of Amazon restarting leases in 2024 sparked a rise in sector employment.

July saw 10,700 new workers join the Warehousing and Storage sector.

Despite these gains, overall employment in warehousing is down 0.5% from last year. This dip reflects the complex nature of e-commerce's impact on industrial real estate. While demand for space remains high, companies are adjusting their strategies.

They aim to balance customer expectations with operational costs in an evolving digital marketplace.

Regional Market Analysis

Regional markets show distinct trends across the United States. Western, Midwestern, Southern, and Northeastern areas face unique challenges and opportunities in industrial real estate.

Trends in Western, Midwestern, Southern, and Northeastern Markets

Industrial real estate markets across the U.S. show varied trends in 2024. Each region has its own unique patterns in sales, rents, and lease spreads.

  1. Western Markets:
    • Lead in industrial sales prices
    • Bay Area tops at $518 per square foot
    • Orange County follows at $322 per square foot
    • Los Angeles close behind at $307 per square foot
  2. Midwestern Markets:
    • In-place rents below national average of $8.15 per square foot
    • Detroit leads region at $7.01 per square foot
    • Detroit saw 3.2% rent increase year-over-year
    • Twin Cities at $6.99 per square foot
    • Twin Cities had 5.1% rent increase year-over-year
  3. Southern Markets:
    • Stand out in lease spreads
    • Miami tops at $5.76 per square foot
    • Charlotte follows at $3.94 per square foot
    • Dallas-Fort Worth at $3.57 per square foot
  4. Northeastern Markets:
    • Most are above the national average rent of $8.15 per square foot
    • New Jersey leads at $10.86 per square foot
    • Philadelphia is near average at $8.00 per square foot
  5. Market Dynamics:
    • Western markets show highest sales prices
    • Southern markets lead in lease spreads
    • Midwestern markets offer lower rents
    • Northeastern markets have higher rents
  6. Investment Opportunities:
    • Western markets for high-value assets
    • Southern markets for strong lease potential
    • Midwestern markets for lower entry costs
    • Northeastern markets for steady income streams

Impact of Economic Indicators on Industrial Real Estate

Economic indicators like interest rates shape investment trends in industrial real estate. Explore how these factors influence market dynamics and investor decisions in our full report.

Interest Rates and Investment Trends

Interest rates and investment trends play a crucial role in shaping the industrial real estate market. Recent data reveals significant shifts in investor behavior and market dynamics.

Interest Rate ImpactInvestment Trends

- Higher rates led to fewer new construction starts since fall 2023

- Projected 10-year low in new project completions by late 2025

- Increased borrowing costs affect investment decisions

- Industrial sales reached $30.7 billion in the first seven months of 2024

- Average price per square foot: $135

- U.S. industrial property stock grew 2.8% over the last year

- Investors favor existing properties over new developments

- Focus on value-add opportunities in current market conditions

- Shift towards long-term, stable assets

- Increased interest in properties with strong tenant profiles

- Growing demand for last-mile distribution centers

These trends emphasize the importance of careful analysis of market conditions. Investors must consider the impact of interest rates against potential returns. The current environment favors strategic acquisitions and value-driven investments in the industrial sector.

Conclusion

The 2024 industrial real estate market shows mixed signals. Vacancy rates have risen, but rents continue to grow. Southern markets lead in lease spreads, while construction slows nationwide.

Economic factors and e-commerce trends will shape the sector's future. Investors and property owners must stay alert to these shifts for success in this dynamic market.

FAQs

1. What are the key findings in the 2024 Industrial Real Estate Market Trends Report?

The report highlights a slowdown in industrial fundamentals. Industrial vacancy rates have increased, and rent growth has slowed compared to pre-pandemic levels. The market shows 1.5 billion square feet of industrial space available for lease, with 2.7 billion square feet under construction.

2. How has the industrial real estate market performed in Q2 2024?

Q2 2024 data reveals softening industrial fundamentals. Net absorption has decreased, while vacancy rates have risen. The report indicates a slowdown in new industrial development projects. Market performance varies by location, with some areas showing more resilience than others.

3. What factors are influencing the industrial real estate market in 2024?

Economic conditions, supply chain shifts, and e-commerce trends are key factors. The Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggests changes in manufacturing and logistics sectors. Capital markets and investment patterns also play a role in shaping the industrial asset landscape.

4. How does the 2024 industrial market compare to other commercial real estate sectors?

The industrial sector has reached a turning point compared to other commercial property types. While office vacancy rates have climbed to 7.3%, industrial vacancies remain lower. Multifamily and retail sectors show different patterns, making the industrial market's performance unique.

5. What are the predictions for the second half of 2024 in the industrial real estate market?

Experts predict continued moderation in rental rate growth. The influx of new supply may further impact vacancy rates. Local market dynamics will play a crucial role, with some regions potentially outperforming others. Occupier strategies and capital market trends will shape the market's direction.

6. How are data and analytics being used in the 2024 industrial real estate market report?

The report utilizes advanced analytics to provide market insights. Data from various sources, including Prologis and JLL, offer comprehensive views of market trends. These analytics help forecast future performance, assess risk, and guide investment decisions in the evolving industrial real estate landscape.

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